Overview
To support supply chain investment as part of its Celtic Sea (Round 5) offshore wind leasing round, The Crown Estate needed to establish a rational basis for the long term Celtic Sea offshore wind capacity. This ambition would give developers, ports, and industry stakeholders confidence to invest.
The technical potential of the Celtic Sea exceeds 100 GW but much of the area suffers from poor grid accessibility and high LCOE. This makes it commercially unattractive. We benchmarked the potential Celtic Sea sites with floating projects in the ScotWind programme.
We found that a rational basis for the long term Celtic Sea offshore wind would be around 20 GW of Celtic Sea capacity could be competitive with ScotWind sites. Their lower transmission charges out-weighed lower wind speeds. We suggested that delivering this volume steadily over a 10-year period (2035–2045). This would justify major supply chain investment, particularly in key ports.
Key challenges
- Balancing technical potential with commercial viability
- Benchmarking Celtic Sea competitiveness against ScotWind projects
- Defining a deployment trajectory
- Translating spatial and economic analysis into a credible capacity figure
Key impact
- IIdentified 20 GW of LCOE-competitive capacity in the Celtic Sea
- Proposed a commercially viable build-out timeline.
- Supported The Crown Estate’s strategic messaging for a rational basis for the long term Celtic Sea offshore wind
- Provided a foundation for investment planning
BVGA team
