Overview
One of the key commitments of Scottish Onshore Wind Sector Deal was to develop a comprehensive onshore wind pipeline model.
To construct this model, we used published data to produce an initial onshore wind pipeline for Scotland. Direct engagement with developers validated existing information and captured forward-looking data. The result was a new more accurate and forward-looking dataset.
The model was dynamic, allowing for sensitivity analysis across a range of variables. Variables included project timelines, attrition rates, and levels of repowering. It also generated a wide range of new insights. The number of projects in the planning system, abnormal road loads estimates, anticipated community benefits, and Contract for Difference requirements were now all visible.
Key challenges
- Fragmented and often incomplete nature of publicly available data
- Gathering and validating data from multiple sources
- Modelling the many uncertainties in the project lifecycle
- Ensuring the model remained usable, insightful, and adaptable for a wide range of stakeholders
Key impact
- Provision of clear, data-backed view of current and future onshore wind onshore wind pipeline activity
- Informing debates on planning system capacity, infrastructure constraints such as abnormal road loads, and the potential for project clustering.
Identification of additional planning or grid resources may be required to meet the targets - Created a shared basis for understanding Scotland’s onshore wind future
BVGA team
Neil Douglas
Stuart Whittingham
Graham Gow
